The year 2024 is set to be a significant one for democracy, as around half of the world’s population is living in countries holding elections. These elections will determine the leaders of over 70 countries and serve as a major health assessment of democracy. In recent years, there have been concerns about the decline of democracy, with governments betraying liberal values and authoritarianism becoming more common. However, the initial results of the 2024 democracy test are not promising.
While there is evidence of democracy being modernized through technological advancements, such as short-form videos and group messaging transforming political campaigning, there is also evidence of democracy regressing. Several elections have been interfered with or even suspended, raising concerns about the state of democracy. It is too early to determine whether strongman rule will emerge as the victor of the 2024 elections, as many countries have yet to vote. However, the current situation is cause for worry.
As of now, nine countries have held or suspended elections, with Finland currently in the process of electing its new president. Azerbaijan, El Salvador, and Pakistan have recently held elections, while Indonesia’s election is next. Russia’s presidential poll is scheduled for March, followed by India’s in April and the European Parliament’s in June. Amidst the challenges faced by democracy, the election in America in November holds significant importance. The outcome of the American election will greatly impact the global perception of democracy, and all eyes will be on a possible rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
The election results so far can be categorized into three groups: free-and-fair, fiascos-and-farces, and indeterminate. Taiwan’s recent election, in which William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emerged as the victor, falls into the free-and-fair category. Despite Chinese subversion and threats, the electorate was not intimidated. The events surrounding the American election will play a crucial role in determining whether 2024 is a year of democratic backsliding or not.
In conclusion, the 2024 elections serve as a significant health assessment of democracy, with half of the world’s population living in countries holding elections. While there are advancements in technology and political campaigning, there are also concerns about the interference and suspension of elections. The outcome of the American election will have a significant impact on the global perception of democracy.
