The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently released a statement indicating that there is an 80 per cent chance of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August, with a 90 per cent probability of it occurring thereafter. This update is significant because El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns, impacting various aspects of society.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the importance of this update, stating that El Niño has far-reaching consequences beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean. It affects agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions. The current temperature readings in the tropical Pacific Ocean are 6°C above average, raising concerns that this El Niño could be particularly devastating to vulnerable and unprepared communities worldwide.
UN Chief Antonio Guterres stressed the urgency of addressing this climate warning, urging the world to take action in response to the WMO alert. The last El Niño in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures registered in 2024. While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, it can amplify associated impacts due to a warmer ocean and atmosphere providing more energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Preparation is key when it comes to El Niño, as Ms. Saulo highlighted the importance of utilizing scientific knowledge and investments made by various countries to better prepare for these events. Weather agencies worldwide, in collaboration with the WMO, are tasked with monitoring conditions to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies, and other climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are crucial in saving lives and minimizing the impact on economies and communities.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth. El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, occurring every two to seven years and lasting around nine to 12 months. It typically begins developing between March and June, reaching peak intensity between November and February, with global temperature impacts most pronounced in the second year after development.
ENSO events are categorized as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, with even a moderate El Niño making some weather and climate extremes more likely, according to the WMO. The organization plays a crucial role in providing information and guidance to help countries and communities prepare for and respond to the impacts of El Niño events.
In conclusion, the emergence of El Niño conditions poses a significant threat to global weather and climate patterns, requiring urgent action and preparedness on a global scale. By leveraging scientific knowledge, early warning systems, and collaborative efforts, countries can mitigate the impact of El Niño events and protect vulnerable populations from the devastating consequences of extreme weather events.
