Two reports have been released this week analyzing Russia’s current fighting capabilities in Ukraine and the prospects for the outcome of the illegal invasion. Both reports come to the same conclusion: the fighting may continue for years before either Ukraine or Russia can achieve victory.
Russia has lost a significant number of tanks, armored transports, supply trucks, engineering vehicles, and artillery guns. The latest version of the IISS Military Balance estimate suggests that Russia has lost more than 3,000 tanks, equivalent to its entire pre-war active inventory. In addition to these losses, Russia has also lost a large number of soldiers, with U.S. intelligence indicating that Russia had lost 87% of its forces as of December.
Despite these losses, Russia has been able to replace its tank fleet with lower-quality armored vehicles from storage. On the other hand, Ukraine’s equipment has improved over the course of the war due to Western shipments of more up-to-date tanks, armor, artillery, and other gear. Ukraine’s army is better trained and equipped than Russia’s, although Russia still has twice as many tanks as Ukraine.
Russia is willing to continue advancing into Ukraine, even though each attempt to move forward results in significant losses due to drones, minefields, and artillery. Russia believes that it can continue to replace its losses with the thousands of tanks and millions of men available. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, is unwilling to destroy his army and is more concerned about the lives of his soldiers.
A report from Rusi.org suggests that Russia now believes it is winning and is unwilling to settle for any arrangement that gives them less than complete control of the regions they currently occupy. Russia sees these terms as surrender terms rather than peace terms. The outcome of the conflict is more likely to be determined in Washington, D.C., than on the front lines.
If Ukraine’s international partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support, Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. The tide is likely to turn in Ukraine’s favor as Russia’s supply of men and material dries up. However, fighting for another two years or more is a significant challenge for Ukraine.
The situation in Avdiivka is becoming dire, with conflicting reports about whether Ukraine has sent reinforcements. Russian advances have severely undermined Ukrainian logistics, and sending reinforcements beyond the industrial complex at the city’s northern edge is problematic. Ukraine has inflicted significant losses on Russia at Avdiivka while suffering relatively few losses of its own.
In conclusion, the fighting in Ukraine may continue for years before either side can achieve victory. Russia has suffered significant losses in terms of tanks, soldiers, and equipment, but has been able to replace its tank fleet. Ukraine is better trained and equipped, but Russia still has twice as many tanks. The outcome of the conflict may depend on the support provided by Ukraine’s international partners. The situation in Avdiivka is becoming increasingly dire, and the next steps will have a significant impact on the course of the war.
