Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, the Hispanic electorate in the United States is grappling with economic strain and increasing skepticism towards the country’s direction. According to a recent survey, these voters are also eager to participate in the upcoming elections, a sentiment that could decisively influence battleground states such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
This trend comes at a time when President Trump’s popularity among Latino voters, which had seen a considerable surge in 2024, has seen a dip. Interestingly, the Democrats have not managed to capitalize on this decline and gain significant ground within the Hispanic community. These insights were gleaned from a bipartisan study by UnidosUS, the country’s most prominent Latino civil rights and advocacy organization.
The study presents a nuanced picture of Latino voters’ changing perspectives, which could potentially sway the balance of power in the House and Senate during the forthcoming elections. If the Democrats manage to win over the Hispanic community, they could regain control of both chambers. Conversely, if the Republicans can maintain their slim majority, they could continue to control the legislative agenda.
According to the UnidosUS survey, which polled 3,000 registered Hispanic voters across the country and in 32 competitive congressional districts, 54% of Latino voters intend to vote for a Democratic House candidate in November, while 27% plan to vote Republican. It’s noteworthy that 19% of those surveyed remain undecided.
These numbers align precisely with the Democratic share of the Latino vote during the 2024 House elections, as per exit polls from that year. However, this represents a significant decrease from previous election cycles. For instance, the Democrats claimed 60% of the Hispanic House vote in 2022, 63% in 2020, and a substantial 69% in 2018.
UnidosUS points out that both the Democrats and Republicans are underperforming their 2024 levels among Latinos. This could be indicative of a broader voter discontent permeating the electorate, as voters express dissatisfaction with the leadership of both parties.
Interestingly, a quarter of Latino voters who backed President Trump in 2024 have stated they would not vote for him again, according to the UnidosUS survey. This figure has seen a steady increase, rising from 9% in April 2025 to 13% in November of the same year, as per previous surveys by the Latino civil rights group.
In comparison, only 5% of Hispanic voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 have stated they would not vote for her again. This suggests that Harris retains substantial support among this demographic, despite the overall trend of shifting political allegiances.
The survey also reveals that a significant majority of Latino voters, 67% to be precise, disapprove of President Trump’s job performance. This disapproval is consistent across all regions surveyed. Even in Trump’s home state of Florida, more than half of the Hispanic respondents, 51%, expressed their disapproval.
When asked about the factors shaping their opinion of President Trump, respondents listed the cost of living and inflation (44%), immigration enforcement (33%), jobs and wages (26%), and the ongoing war with Iran (25%) as the primary concerns.
The survey indicates that voter turnout could be high, with 76% of respondents stating they are either “100% certain” or “almost certain” they will vote in the November elections. This figure puts the projected Latino turnout on par with the record-breaking 2018 midterms, which saw an unprecedented wave of Democratic support.
However, the survey also contains warnings for the Democratic Party. Just 31% of Hispanic Democrats stated they are motivated to vote to support their own candidates, compared to 52% who are primarily motivated to vote to support their community. Among Hispanic Republicans, a more substantial 52% are motivated to vote for their preferred candidates. This enthusiasm gap could affect turnout in battleground districts.
Economic issues, followed by immigration, emerged as the top priorities for the respondents. The general dissatisfaction with the state of the economy helped propel President Trump to victory in 2024. Now, with most Americans still holding a negative view of the economy, the president’s support could be eroding. A CBS News poll conducted earlier this month found that only 27% of Americans approve of the president’s handling of inflation, and half of the voters believe his policies will worsen the economy in the long run.
The UnidosUS survey revealed that the top four issues Hispanic voters want their Congressional representatives to address are all economic concerns: the cost of living and inflation (60%), the economy and jobs/wages (40%), healthcare (37%), and housing (27%). Immigration was ranked fifth, with 21% of respondents listing it as a priority.
A meager 15% of Latino voters stated they are living comfortably, while a staggering 68% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This represents an increase from 60% in an April 2025 survey sponsored by UnidosUS. Furthermore, 66% of respondents felt that President Trump and Congressional Republicans are not doing enough to improve the economy, and 52% expect the president’s economic policies will leave them worse off over the next 12 months.
On the issue of immigration, an overwhelming majority of Latino voters, including a majority of Republicans, support offering legal status to long-residing undocumented immigrants, even when the policy is framed as “amnesty.” More than seven in 10 oppose additional funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement without conditions, and 44% expressed fear that immigration authorities might harass or arrest them or members of their community, even if they are U.S. citizens or legal residents.
Regarding foreign policy, 64% of Hispanic voters oppose the U.S.’ military action in Iran. As President Trump hints at potential military intervention in Cuba, 57% of Latino voters express opposition to the idea. However, Cuban Americans are an exception, with more than six in 10 supporting potential intervention.
Texas, in particular, could prove to be a significant battleground for both parties’ attempts to secure Latino support. Democrats hope to win their first Senate race in the state in decades, while Republicans aim to gain more House districts after redrawing the state’s congressional maps last year.
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton will compete against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the upcoming elections. After a primary runoff on Tuesday, longtime incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn was defeated by Paxton.
According to the UnidosUS poll, 51% of Texas Latinos are either planning to vote for Talarico or leaning towards him, while 24% favor Paxton. Another 18% remain undecided.
Republicans have found encouragement in the rightward shift among Texas Latino voters in recent years, particularly in communities along the U.S.-Mexico border that were once staunchly Democratic. Zach Bannon, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), asserted in a statement earlier this month, “The trend is clear: Hispanic Americans are rejecting Democrats’ fixation on radical policies and embracing our vision for economic freedom, safer communities, and the American Dream.”
NRCC Chair, GOP Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, has described Latinos as “the most important voting bloc” nationwide in recent months.
However, House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged earlier this year that President Trump’s hardline immigration policies have negatively impacted support among Latino voters. He stated in March that Republicans were in “course correction mode” with this demographic.
According to Democratic strategist and Talarico campaign adviser Chuck Rocha, immigration could be the catalyst for a shift back towards the Democrats among Texas Latinos. Talarico won the Democratic nomination against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, in part due to a surge in Latino turnout.
“Latino voters in Texas have been moving right over the last few cycles, but because of failed promises by Donald Trump, and ICE agents in our streets, picking up law-abiding immigrants, the Latino community is dramatically shifting back towards the Democrats,” said Rocha, a CBS News contributor. “Something’s happening in Texas, and Latinos are sick and tired of being sick and tired.”
In conclusion, the 2026 midterm elections represent a critical juncture for Hispanic voters, whose changing sentiments and motivations could have far-reaching implications on the political landscape. As the country heads towards these crucial elections, all eyes will be on states like Texas, where the Latino vote could very well determine the outcome.
