The year 2023 has the potential to be a significant turning point for countries and even continents, similar to pivotal years in the past. It comes at the end of a decade of low interest rates, with the return of high energy prices, inflation, and war in Europe. Additionally, the world is recovering from one of the deadliest pandemics in history, and China is retreating from global integration. These trends could lead to broad political shifts in rich countries, possibly moving politics to the left in reaction to the dominance of center-right governments in the previous decade.
Already, there is evidence of a leftward shift in politics. At a G7 meeting in 2022, Joe Biden found himself surrounded by leaders from the center-left, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan (stretching the definition). This contrasts with a meeting in 2010 when all the leaders came from the right or center-right. While this could be a temporary swing of the pendulum, there are indications that something more profound may be happening. Public opinion in rich democracies seems to be shifting to the left, with decreasing trust in banks, tech companies, and large corporations. There is also a growing desire for major economic reforms, particularly among those who identify as being on the left.
Climate change is likely a driving force behind the public’s desire for sweeping changes. In a Pew poll of 19 countries, three-quarters of respondents described climate change as a major threat. This concern, coupled with the belief that not enough is being done to address it, is contributing to the call for significant economic and social reforms. The public’s shifting attitudes towards private enterprise and the desire for change suggest that a broader political shift may be underway.
While there are still national exceptions and it remains to be seen if these trends will lead to lasting change, the convergence of factors such as the end of low interest rates, the return of inflation, and the impact of the pandemic and China’s retreat indicate that 2023 could be a transformative year. If this shift to the left continues, it could have far-reaching implications for the future direction of rich democracies and their economies.
