The Arab League meetings are often seen as a waste of time and are not enjoyed by those attending. However, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad is relishing his next summit as Syria has been readmitted to the league after being suspended since 2011. This is seen as a culmination of Assad’s efforts to end his Arab isolation and gain acceptance in the West. Despite his regime’s lack of political reform, accountability for war crimes, and efforts to address the refugee crisis, Assad is hoping that causing enough problems for others will lead to diplomatic redemption.
Assad’s return to the world stage highlights two important lessons. Firstly, even the bloodiest dictator can find a road to diplomatic redemption if they cause enough problems for others. Assad’s regime has caused immense destruction and displacement in Syria, but his return to the Arab League shows that his actions have not been enough to prevent him from being readmitted. Secondly, the autocrats and warlords who court Russian support may end up disappointed. Assad needs the wealthy Gulf states for the reconstruction of his country, as Russia alone cannot provide the necessary resources.
Assad would prefer a rapprochement with the West, as they have placed his regime under sanctions that hinder reconstruction efforts. However, the likelihood of this happening is low, as the West is hesitant to engage with Assad’s regime due to its lack of political reform and accountability. The question arises of whether sanctions should be maintained despite their toll on civilians if they fail to force change in a regime. Assad has never been a complete pariah in the region, with Algeria and Egypt both maintaining ties with his regime at various points. However, his return to the United Arab Emirates last year marked the end of a decade of isolation in the Arab world.
