Around half of the world’s population, or approximately 4 billion people, are living in countries that are holding elections this year. These elections will determine the governing bodies of over 70 countries and will serve as a significant health assessment of democracy. In recent years, there have been concerns about the state of democracy, with governments betraying liberal values and authoritarianism becoming more prevalent. As of February 14th, countries with a population of 770 million have already cast their ballots or have been prevented from doing so, accounting for roughly 18.5% of the total expected for the year. This provides an initial indication of the state of democracy in 2024, which is not particularly promising.
While democracy is experiencing technological advancements with the rise of short-form videos and group messaging transforming political campaigning, it is also regressing in other aspects. Several elections have been interfered with or even suspended, such as in Pakistan and El Salvador. It is still too early to determine if the victor of the 2024 election frenzy will be strongman rule, as countries with a population of 3.6 billion have yet to vote. However, there is cause for concern.
Nine countries have already held or suspended elections, with Finland electing its new president recently. Azerbaijan, El Salvador, and Pakistan have also held elections. The upcoming election in Indonesia, followed by Russia’s presidential poll and India’s elections in April, will continue to shape the state of democracy. The European Parliament elections in June will also contribute to this assessment.
Given the challenges faced by democracies, the election in the United States in November holds significant importance. The outcome of this election will have a substantial impact on the state of democracy, with all eyes on a potential rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. So far, the election results can be categorized into three groups: free and fair elections, fiascos and farces, and indeterminate outcomes. Taiwan’s recent vote, where William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party emerged victorious despite Chinese subversion, serves as an example of a free and fair election.
In summary, the state of democracy in 2024 is not particularly promising based on the elections held so far. While there have been technological advancements in political campaigning, there have also been instances of election interference and suspension. The upcoming elections, particularly in the United States, will play a crucial role in shaping the future of democracy.
