The prospect of a second Trump presidency has sparked concerns among foreign governments and lawmakers around the world. Many are preparing for the consequences, which are expected to include tariffs, a possible abandonment of Ukraine and Taiwan, a transactional approach to allies, and a further decay of global rules. The world is currently facing chaotic global circumstances, with state-based conflicts at their highest level since 1946. The Biden administration had aimed to reinvent America’s role in the world, but the effectiveness of their doctrine may decline as the 2024 election approaches.
If Trump were to win a second term, his approach to foreign policy is expected to be even more transactional and unsentimental. Many allies may be seen as “users” and could face pressure on trade and defense spending. Some countries are already trying to boost their appeal by increasing defense spending or offering attention from their royal families or sports stars. Vulnerable allies like Taiwan and Ukraine may face abandonment, which would have profound consequences for America’s alliances. On the other hand, enemies and adversaries can expect threats and periodic openness to striking transformative deals.
The erosion of global rules on trade and human rights is also expected to worsen under a second Trump presidency, which could lead to a further decay of global order and an increase in conflicts, especially in the poorest countries with weak institutions. The Biden administration may struggle to make binding commitments as the 2024 election approaches, and the situation is worsened by Republican intransigence. Overall, countries around the world are realizing that there may not be enough time to fill the vacuum that a second Trump presidency could create.
In conclusion, the world is starting to prepare for the consequences of a second Trump presidency, which could include tariffs, abandonment of allies, and a further decay of global rules. The chaotic global circumstances, along with the gulf between Trump and Biden’s policy positions, make this transition particularly challenging. Allies may face pressure on trade and defense spending, vulnerable allies like Taiwan and Ukraine may be abandoned, and enemies and adversaries may face threats and openness to transformative deals. The erosion of global rules could worsen, leading to a higher prospect of conflicts, especially in the poorest countries. The Biden administration’s ability to make binding commitments may decline as the 2024 election approaches, leaving a potential vacuum that cannot be easily filled in such a short period of time.
