The upcoming New Hampshire primary, set to take place on January 23, 2024, is not experiencing the usual frenzy that voters are accustomed to. While there are no traditional debates or back-to-back public appearances by candidates, voters are still being inundated with advertising, including through mail. New Hampshire voters understand the significance of their participation in the first primary of the election season. The voter makeup in New Hampshire is unique, with undeclared voters being the largest portion of the electorate. These undeclared voters often behave as partisans, despite not declaring a party affiliation on the voter rolls. While there are true independents in New Hampshire, they are a minority among the undeclared voters.
Registering as an undeclared voter in New Hampshire provides individuals with the freedom to discreetly express their political identity. Undeclared voters can choose either a Democrat or Republican ballot at the polls and then revert back to undeclared status after voting. The presence of undeclared voters makes polling less accurate in New Hampshire, as there can be last-minute volatility in turnout and voter preferences. The flipping point in this election could be an unexpectedly high turnout of undeclared voters, as well as independent voters and Democrats registered as undeclared, who want to disrupt the popularity of Donald Trump.
New Hampshire voters, who are relatively politically attentive and well-educated, may feel pressure leading up to the primary. However, there is a sense, both in the local and national media, that this primary is not very competitive, with Trump seen as the inevitable winner. This perception may affect the turnout of more casual voters who may feel that the election is already determined. The media often asks about independent voters in New Hampshire, but the focus on this topic has become repetitive.
Overall, the New Hampshire primary is unique due to its voter makeup and the presence of undeclared voters. The outcome of the primary may be influenced by the turnout of these undeclared voters, as well as independent voters and Democrats registered as undeclared. While the primary may not be as competitive as in previous years, more attentive voters will still show up on election day.
