Former President Donald Trump is set to accept the Republican nomination on Thursday night, with his largest national lead over President Biden in the campaign so far. A majority of voters, including some who are not voting for him, believe that Trump’s words since the assassination attempt have been more unifying than divisive. Similarly, voters also view Mr. Biden’s response to the tragic events in a positive light.
Trump currently holds a five-point lead nationally and a three-point lead across key battleground states. This significant advantage for Trump is a rare occurrence, as it has been 20 years since a Republican presidential candidate won the national popular vote, and over 30 years since a Republican won by more than five points.
The latest polling data shows that Trump’s lead in the battleground states has increased by one point since the previous survey. While Trump’s handling of the assassination attempt has been perceived positively by some voters, it has not significantly changed the consideration calculus for two-thirds of voters.
Among the candidates, Trump is seen as the one who fights the most for people like them. In a hypothetical matchup, Trump also leads Vice President Kamala Harris, with marginal differences in how she and Mr. Biden currently run among demographic groups such as younger voters and voters of color.
There is a substantial portion of the Republican party that feels Mr. Biden should step aside as the nominee, and Democrats continue to lag behind Republicans in their expressed likelihood of turning out for the election. Additionally, there is a bipartisan view, especially among Republicans, that the U.S. Secret Service could have done more to prevent the shooting that occurred recently.
Mr. Biden’s response to the events has been well-received by most Americans, with a third of Trump voters acknowledging his efforts to encourage unity. Despite these positive responses, eight in 10 voters believe that civility in U.S. politics has worsened in recent years, and a majority expect an increase in political violence in the future.
The addition of Sen. JD Vance to the GOP ticket has been viewed positively by Republican voters, with most being satisfied and half being enthusiastic about the choice, particularly among the MAGA wing of the party.
Overall, the CBS News/YouGov survey conducted with a representative sample of 2,247 registered voters nationwide paints a picture of Trump’s growing advantage in the upcoming election. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.7 points, and the battleground states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In conclusion, the political landscape is shifting in favor of Trump, with his lead in the polls and positive perceptions of his response to recent events. However, the survey also highlights concerns about the state of civility in politics and the potential for increased political violence in the future. As the election approaches, these factors will continue to shape the dynamics of the campaign.
