President Biden and Donald Trump are gearing up for a close rematch in Georgia in the upcoming general election, with Trump holding a three-point lead over Biden among likely voters. The edge Trump currently has is driven by a small group of Biden’s 2020 voters switching to Trump, as well as favorable views of how Trump’s policies would affect Georgians’ pocketbooks. Additionally, voters in Georgia are more likely to believe that Trump, rather than Biden, would strengthen U.S. democracy, with a significant portion of Biden’s own voters expressing skepticism about his second-term policies.
Trump’s numbers on democracy are boosted by his own voters who believe in widespread voter fraud in Georgia in 2020 and view the charges against him as politically motivated. Democrats are trying to raise the salience of abortion access after the Dobbs decision, with a majority of Georgia voters preferring abortions to be mostly legal. However, about three in 10 voters who prefer legal abortions currently support Trump over Biden, indicating another group to watch as the campaign unfolds. Additionally, most voters in Georgia feel that Biden is not focused enough on issues like inflation and the U.S.-Mexico border, which is correlated with their voting intentions.
In 2020, Georgia went blue for the first time in decades, with Biden narrowly beating Trump. Early on, a turnout gap is emerging in Georgia, with Republicans and Trump 2020 voters expressing higher motivation to vote compared to Democrats and Biden 2020 voters. Trump’s current lead in the polls is more attributable to persuasion than differential turnout, with more Biden 2020 voters considering switching to the other party. Trump’s supporters in Georgia would still consider him fit for the presidency even if he were found guilty of trying to overturn the 2020 election, suggesting a strong base of support for the former president.
One noticeable shift comes from the diverse suburbs around Atlanta, where voters who were critical to Biden’s success in 2020 now lean towards Trump. Trump’s support has also improved slightly among voters of color, with Black voters making up nearly a third of Georgia’s electorate and 17% currently supporting Trump over Biden. Additionally, voters under 50, men who voted for Biden in 2020, self-described moderates, and independents are among the groups considering switching to Trump. The Biden campaign faces challenges in mobilizing these key segments of their 2020 coalition to turn out and support the president again or cast a vote against Trump.
Overall, the upcoming general election in Georgia is shaping up to be a close race between Biden and Trump, with both candidates vying for support from key voter groups in the state. Trump’s lead in the polls is driven by persuasion rather than turnout, and both candidates are focusing on key issues like democracy, abortion access, and the economy to sway undecided voters. The outcome of the election will likely hinge on voter turnout, especially in crucial swing demographics like voters of color, young voters, and men who previously supported Biden.
