Despite the West’s attempts to isolate Russia through sanctions and condemnation, Russia’s geopolitical influence seems to remain strong. Russia has troops and mercenaries in at least 16 other countries, and has been the dominant natural-gas supplier to more than a dozen countries. It has also accounted for more than half of arms imports in 22 different countries. Russia’s diplomatic resilience has frustrated the West, as it has not been isolated and has received support or useful abstentions from many countries in the UN.
However, data compiled by The Economist on various military, economic, and diplomatic measures shows that Russia’s influence is not as strong as it may seem. The “Putin’s pals index” looks at different measures of support or potential coercion in three categories: military, diplomatic, and energy/economics. In terms of military support, the index considers treaty alliances, presence of Russian troops or mercenaries, arms supply, and joint maneuvers with Russia. In terms of diplomacy, it looks at voting patterns in key UN resolutions. And in terms of energy and economics, it looks at reliance on Russian gas and trade with Russia.
Overall, the index paints a more nuanced picture of Russia’s influence. While Russia does have some support in certain areas, there are also countries that have opposed or abstained from supporting Russia in key UN resolutions. Additionally, not all countries rely heavily on Russian gas or have significant trade with Russia. Therefore, while Russia may have some allies and influence, it is not as universally supported as it may appear.
In conclusion, while Russia may boast about its diplomatic resilience and geopolitical clout, data suggests that its influence is not as strong as it may seem. The “Putin’s pals index” shows that while Russia does have some support in certain areas, there are also countries that have opposed or abstained from supporting Russia in key UN resolutions. Additionally, not all countries rely heavily on Russian gas or have significant trade with Russia. Therefore, the West’s attempts to isolate Russia may not have been a complete failure.
