A contentious Republican primary for an Ohio Senate seat has become a divisive proxy race between Trump loyalists and the state’s more traditional conservatives. The three candidates vying for the chance to unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown are Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and businessman Bernie Moreno. Moreno has garnered GOP endorsements from Ohio’s junior senator, J.D. Vance, Rep. Jim Jordan, and former President Donald Trump. At a rally in Dayton headlined by Trump, Moreno labeled his opponents as part of the “swamp RINO establishment” and urged supporters to put America first by voting for him.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, considered a more establishment Republican, endorsed Dolan for the Senate seat, leading Trump to also label him as a “RINO.” DeWine and his wife Fran believe Dolan, a proven conservative, is the strongest candidate to defeat Sherrod Brown in the fall. Brown, seeking his fourth term, is the only Democrat who has won a statewide election in Ohio since 2006. Exit polls show that most Ohio GOP primary voters support Trump and are satisfied with his previous presidency. A majority also believe that Trump would be fit for the presidency even if he were convicted of a crime.
The Ohio Republican primary electorate overwhelmingly supports candidates who show support for Trump, with conservative voters considering this a crucial factor in selecting the state’s next senator. Despite the majority believing in Trump’s fitness for office, there is a split among moderate voters and independents. Most voters have already decided on their Senate candidate, with a significant portion making up their minds in the last week. Immigration is a top issue for Ohio GOP presidential primary voters, with a majority supporting the deportation of undocumented immigrants.
In the 2022 primary races, Trump-backed candidates swept key contests, with J.D. Vance being elected to the Senate with Trump’s endorsement. Vance’s victory was an exception, as several other Trump-backed candidates eventually lost their general elections. LaRose, who did not receive Trump’s endorsement in the current Senate race, is considered a proven conservative who could be a Trump ally if elected. The Ohio Senate race is rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report, signaling its importance in the battle for control of the Senate. Democrats have also been investing in the Ohio GOP primary, with the Duty and Country PAC running ads in support of Bernie Moreno. The race remains highly competitive, with the outcome likely to have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate.
