Since Myanmar’s military coup in February 2021, several countries, including the United States and European Union member states, have imposed economic sanctions on the country’s military. However, experts argue that these sanctions are unlikely to have the desired impact. The current sanctions are more targeted and designed to affect the military government and its enterprises, rather than the entire Myanmar economy. The US has also made it a priority to work collaboratively with international partners on imposing complementary sanctions. However, the lack of United Nations support and the refusal of countries in East and Southeast Asia to sanction Myanmar undermine Western efforts to isolate the country. Myanmar’s trade ties within its own region are strong, and countries in Southeast Asia prefer engagement to isolation.
The effectiveness of sanctions is further hindered by the fact that countries with significant leverage are unlikely to impose sanctions on Myanmar. The example of jet fuel trade is highlighted, with China, Thailand, Singapore, and Russia providing the majority of Myanmar’s military’s jet fuel, despite US sanctions. Furthermore, the potential for change in Myanmar seems unlikely without significant efforts from countries with economic interdependence, such as China, Japan, and ASEAN member states. While ASEAN has signaled its awareness of the regime’s atrocities and denied Myanmar its turn as ASEAN’s chair in 2026, it is unlikely to impose economic sanctions in the foreseeable future.
In conclusion, while the current sanctions on Myanmar’s military government are more targeted and focused on affecting specific entities, they are unlikely to have a significant impact. The lack of international support, particularly from countries in East and Southeast Asia, undermines Western efforts to isolate Myanmar. Additionally, countries with significant leverage are hesitant to impose sanctions, further hindering the effectiveness of these measures. Without significant efforts and cooperation from countries with economic interdependence, it is unlikely that sanctions alone will lead to meaningful change in Myanmar’s human rights and democracy situation.
