The Senate has voted to move forward with a $95 billion aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan in a first-ever Super Bowl Sunday session. The vote was 67-27, indicating that the bill will likely pass in the Senate, although Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has been obstructing the process by refusing to agree to shorten the debate time. This means that the bill may not pass until Wednesday, putting pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson to either pass the bill or block it.
There is a threat to Johnson from Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has stated that she will bring a motion to oust Johnson as speaker if he puts Ukraine aid on the floor. In support of Greene’s cause, GOP Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio is circulating a conspiracy theory that the bill contains a setup to impeach Donald Trump again if he is reelected in November. The theory suggests that if Trump cancels the aid, he would face another impeachment. This puts pressure on House Republicans, including Johnson, to stay on Trump’s good side and block the aid.
However, Johnson is also facing pressure from the pro-Ukraine side, including from House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner. Turner recently led a delegation to Ukraine, where he assured President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Republican support in Congress and the continuation of U.S. aid. Turner warns that the situation in Ukraine is dire, with Ukrainian troops rationing munitions and being unable to fully defend themselves. He argues that it is crucial to pass the aid bill to avoid abandoning Ukraine.
Democrats have the option to bypass Johnson and put the bill on the floor with a discharge petition. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has stated that Democrats are prepared to use every available legislative tool to pass the bill. The discharge petition requires 218 signatures to be put on the floor, and as of now, they need six Republicans to join them. This number may change depending on the result of a special election in New York. If Democrat Tom Suozzi wins, Democrats will only need five Republicans to join them.
There is significant support for Ukraine among House Republicans, as 101 of them voted for aid in September. If the new aid package makes it to the floor, it is likely to pass. This puts Johnson in a difficult position, as he must choose between standing with Ukraine or standing with Trump. The outcome of this decision will have significant implications for the future of the aid bill.
