Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has declared his intention to “obliterate Hamas” and destroy it altogether in the ongoing war in Gaza. Hamas, a religious idea, social movement, political party, government, and militia, poses a significant challenge for Israel. While the objective is to seize Gaza City, eliminate Hamas’s top leaders, and destroy its military capacity, achieving this goal may take weeks or even months of house-to-house fighting. However, there are concerns about the day after the fighting, particularly regarding the question of who will take over control of Gaza.
Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister, points out that Israel faces four constraints. The first three relate to the war itself, including how to fight despite the presence of hostages, how to avoid a two-front war involving Lebanon’s Hizbullah militia, and how to manage time as international support for Israel may erode due to Palestinian suffering. The fourth concern revolves around the “day after” the war and who will assume control of Gaza once Hamas is defeated. This poses a significant challenge as Israel’s previous occupation of Gaza proved too costly to maintain, leading to the withdrawal of military forces and Jewish settlers in 2005.
Without a clear security and political strategy for the “day after,” any military victory may unravel, as seen in past conflicts such as Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and America’s invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. These conflicts initially achieved military success but ultimately turned into political debacles. The situation in Israel is likened to the state of the United States after 9/11, with anger and fear driving the focus on military action rather than long-term political solutions.
The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza presents complex challenges for Israel. While the objective is to destroy Hamas altogether, the question of what comes next remains a significant concern. Without a comprehensive strategy for the “day after,” any military victory may result in political instability and further violence. The parallels to previous conflicts, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, serve as a cautionary reminder of the potential pitfalls of focusing solely on military action without considering long-term political solutions.
