The House of Representatives is gearing up for a crucial vote that will determine its new speaker. With 434 members expected to be present, the focus is on who will secure the majority needed to claim the coveted position. However, one seat is expected to be vacant, that of former Rep. Matt Gaetz.
The voting process is expected to be a tense affair, with members being called individually to cast their votes by calling out a name. In order to be reelected as speaker, the incumbent, Rep. Johnson, will need to secure a majority of the votes. The magic number needed for a majority is not set in stone, which adds an element of uncertainty to the proceedings. This number could change based on attendance and whether members choose to vote for a named candidate or simply record themselves as “present.”
Several scenarios could play out depending on how the votes are cast. If all 215 Democrats show up and unite behind their leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Johnson will only be able to afford to lose one Republican vote to another named candidate and still secure the majority:
– Jeffries: 215
– Johnson: 218
– Other candidate: 1
– 218 out of 434 = A majority for Johnson
However, if Johnson loses a second Republican vote to another named candidate, he would not have the necessary majority:
– Jeffries: 215
– Johnson: 217
– Other candidate: 2
– 217 out of 434 = Not a majority
In theory, Johnson could lose one GOP vote to another named candidate and have one Republican defect by recording “present” instead of voting for an alternate candidate. This is because the number needed for a majority would be lower:
– Jeffries: 215
– Johnson: 217
– Other candidate: 1
– Present: 1
– 217 out of 433 = A majority for Johnson
However, if two Republicans vote “present,” Johnson would not have the majority needed:
– Jeffries: 215
– Johnson: 216
– Other candidate: 1
– Present: 2
– 216 out of 432 = Not a majority for Johnson
If three Republicans defect and all vote “present,” Johnson would still secure a majority:
– Jeffries: 215
– Johnson: 216
– Present: 3
– 216 out of 431 = A majority for Johnson
Despite these possibilities, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky has already announced that he will not vote for Johnson and will instead support an alternate candidate. Massie is the only one currently known to oppose Johnson, though there are several Republicans who remain undecided, including Reps. Chip Roy, Andy Biggs, Victoria Spartz, Tim Burchett, and Ralph Norman. Johnson has been making efforts to win over these undecided members, meeting with them individually to discuss their concerns and garner their support.
One key advantage for Johnson is that no other Republican has emerged as a challenger or publicly expressed interest in contesting his reelection bid. This lack of opposition could work in Johnson’s favor as he seeks to secure the majority needed to retain his position as speaker of the House. The coming vote is sure to be a closely watched and pivotal moment in the House of Representatives, with the outcome having far-reaching implications for the legislative agenda and the future direction of the chamber.
