Nikki Haley faces an uphill battle in the South Carolina Republican primary against Donald Trump, who has already scored big wins in other early states. Despite being well-liked in her home state, Haley is unlikely to upset Trump, who is aiming for a clean sweep of the early contests. Haley’s best hope may be to narrow the margin and slow down Trump’s momentum heading into Super Tuesday.
Haley has been campaigning on her conservative credentials and her ability to unite a broad coalition of voters, without explicitly asking for Democratic support in the open primary. However, some voters, like Tim Foster, a Trump supporter, feel that Haley has changed since her time as governor and may not have a natural base to rely on. Democrats, especially Black voters in South Carolina, remember Haley’s past positions and are skeptical of her claims of being a moderate.
If Haley hopes to defeat Trump, she will need to make inroads with voters in metro Charleston and greater Columbia, areas that Trump did not carry in the 2016 primary. These regions are home to a diverse population that helped Biden win in 2020, including Black voters, college students, and moderate whites. Haley will need to appeal to these voters in order to narrow Trump’s lead.
Haley has been critical of Trump’s comments about her husband, who is deployed with the South Carolina Army National Guard. Retired Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc has made emotional appeals on Haley’s behalf, highlighting Trump’s history of mocking veterans. Some South Carolina veterans, like Bob Crawford, have been swayed by Haley’s message and are turning away from Trump.
Despite Trump’s strong support in South Carolina, Haley is determined to stay in the race through Super Tuesday and beyond. Whether her endurance will have any impact on the rest of the primary campaign remains to be seen, as the outcome of a prolonged primary race is difficult to predict. However, history has shown that extended primary campaigns can have unforeseen consequences in the general election, with past examples like Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz impacting the eventual nominees in unexpected ways.
