The next war between major world powers is predicted to begin in space, as countries race to develop capabilities and weapons beyond the Earth’s atmosphere. Iran’s recent satellite launches have raised concerns in Western countries about their potential use in ballistic missile programs. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also heightened tensions in the space war arena. However, the United States is most concerned about China’s ambition to surpass American dominance in space. American generals, known as “Guardians,” closely monitor missile launches and satellite deployments from their headquarters in Colorado Springs. They also keep a close eye on the growing amount of space debris and the re-entry of objects into the Earth’s atmosphere.
Two recently launched robotic space planes, the American X37-B and China’s Shenlong, are of particular interest to American commanders. These space planes have the potential to undertake long missions, deliver and capture payloads, change orbit, and refuel on Earth, making them valuable weapons. Russia’s launch of Cosmos 2570 in October, which released two additional satellites, has raised suspicions among American commanders that it may be a test of a “kill vehicle” designed to destroy satellites.
In November 2021, the Joint Operations Centre (JOC) in Colorado Springs experienced a foretaste of space hostilities when a missile fired from Russia’s Plesetsk cosmodrome was detected. It was determined to be an anti-satellite weapon aimed at a defunct Soviet spy satellite. This event may have been a warning to the United States to stay out of the conflict in Ukraine or risk a space-based conflict. Russia’s second shot came in the form of malware that spread shortly before their tanks assaulted Ukraine in February 2022.
Overall, the race for supremacy in space has intensified, with countries developing new capabilities and weapons to fight beyond Earth’s atmosphere. The United States is particularly concerned about China’s efforts to match or surpass American dominance in space. Space planes and anti-satellite weapons are of particular interest and may play a significant role in future space warfare. The events in Ukraine have further heightened tensions and raised the possibility of conflict stretching into space.
