Austin Chen and Rachel Weinberg have become the subject of a betting market on the website Manifold, where users can bet on various outcomes. In this case, 103 people have placed bets on whether Chen and Weinberg will still be married in five years, with the aggregated probability currently at 92%. Chen himself is more optimistic, putting the probability at 98%. Both Chen and Weinberg have placed bets on their own marriage, with Chen standing to win 6,483 Mana and Weinberg set to collect 2,407 Mana if their marriage endures.
Chen is a co-founder of Manifold, which was established in December 2021 with funding from venture capitalists and charitable grantmakers. The platform allows users to bet on a wide range of topics, from political elections to entertainment awards. Chen and his co-founders were drawn to prediction markets and wanted to encourage more people to use them. According to Chen, if prediction markets are as good as people claim, then why aren’t more people using them?
This isn’t the first time Chen has been involved in a betting market on Manifold. In 2022, his sister set up a market to predict whether he would get a girlfriend that year. Chen’s brother and sister both bet against him, but he proved them wrong when he met Weinberg at a conference. Their relationship progressed quickly, prompting Chen to open a market on whether they would get married. This caused some controversy, but the couple decided to embrace it and participate in the betting themselves.
In summary, Austin Chen and Rachel Weinberg have become the subjects of a betting market on the website Manifold. Users can bet on whether the couple will still be married in five years, with the aggregated probability currently at 92%. Chen, a co-founder of Manifold, is more optimistic, putting the probability at 98%. Both Chen and Weinberg have placed bets on their own marriage. Chen’s involvement in previous betting markets on the platform led to the creation of this market, and the couple decided to embrace it despite the initial controversy.
