The article discusses the potential consequences of a second term for President Donald Trump on Ukraine and Europe. Trump’s vague statements about ending the war in Ukraine could imply halting military aid to Ukraine and allowing Russia to keep its gains from the invasion. This could be disastrous for Ukraine and have wider implications for Europe, as it may lead to a breakdown of trust in alliances and the European order. Under President Joe Biden, the US has provided military aid to Ukraine and leadership in responding to the conflict. Trumpian populism may show how quickly American protection can be lost.
European governments are grappling with three fears: attack by Russia, economic challenges from China, and abandonment by America. French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed European “strategic autonomy” as a solution to these fears. He argues that Europeans need to be able to defend themselves both militarily and economically, as they cannot rely on the choices of American voters for their collective security. Critics see this as an attempt to sever Europe’s ties with America, but French officials believe that a transatlantic separation is already underway. They argue that America’s focus on China and its potential pivot away from Europe could leave Europe vulnerable.
While most European governments do not fully share this analysis and believe that America’s military commitment to Europe is increasing, they do not entirely discount the possibility of being abandoned. In theory, European NATO allies are industrialized and capable of defending themselves, but it remains uncertain if they can truly fend for themselves if abandoned. The article raises concerns about the future of the transatlantic relationship and highlights the need for Europe to strengthen its own capabilities and partnerships.
Overall, the article warns of the potential consequences of a second term for President Trump on Ukraine and Europe. It highlights the importance of American protection and leadership in the region and raises questions about Europe’s ability to defend itself if abandoned. The idea of European “strategic autonomy” is presented as a possible solution to the fears and uncertainties facing European governments.
