The recent United Nations climate conference, COP28, saw delegates agree to move away from using fossil fuels in energy systems for the first time in over three decades of international climate diplomacy. The agreement, however, lacks an enforcement mechanism, relying solely on government actions to give it teeth. The final text calls on parties to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and to accelerate action to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The conference took place against the backdrop of wars in Ukraine and the Gaza strip, and an agreement before the summit between the US and China laid the groundwork for its success. However, the conference also highlighted the challenges of tackling the multiple problems posed by climate change simultaneously, with trade-offs made between progress on fossil fuels and the needs of the poorest countries.
The conference also marked the first “global stocktake” as outlined in the Paris Agreement, which assesses progress on cutting emissions and provides feedback on how efforts can improve. The stocktake concluded that countries remain well off track in meeting emissions reduction targets. The text states that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 if limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is to be considered plausible. However, even if every aspect of countries’ current plans were met, emissions reductions in 2030 are projected to be only 5%.
The deal reached at COP28 highlights the changing perceptions of fossil fuels in the US and China. America’s domestic consumption of oil and natural gas is forecast to fall or plateau, freeing up more for export, while China is increasing its renewable and nuclear capacity and electrifying transport. However, China is also building more coal plants for energy security. The deal also shows that the world has not yet figured out how to tackle all the problems posed by climate change simultaneously, with trade-offs made between progress on fossil fuels and the needs of the poorest countries. The conference also highlighted the need for continued financing for climate projects in developing countries.
