In the 2024 U.S. Senate races, Democratic incumbents Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin are currently leading their Republican challengers by seven points. Both senators had large margins of victory in 2018, but face more competitive reelection bids in a challenging environment this year. With plenty of undecided voters and reasons for the races to tighten as the campaigns progress, the outcomes are uncertain.
The Republicans in the races, David McCormick in Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, are not well known to voters. McCormick only recently became the GOP nominee, and Hovde has yet to gain significant recognition from voters. This lack of familiarity with the challengers provides an opportunity for the incumbents to solidify their positions, but they still have work to do to persuade undecided voters. Furthermore, the current political climate, with dissatisfaction towards President Biden and competitive presidential races in these states, adds another layer of uncertainty.
The undecided voters in these Senate races are primarily Republican-leaning, as indicated by their recent votes for president and Congress. With a decline in ticket splitting, it is expected that these undecided voters will ultimately choose GOP candidates down ballot. If undecided voters were to align with the same party for president and Senate, the margin in both races would tighten to under five points, benefiting the Democratic senators. These dynamics highlight the importance of engaging with undecided voters and making a compelling case for their reelection.
The CBS News/YouGov surveys conducted between April 19-25, 2024, provide insights into the current state of the Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Based on representative samples of registered voters in each state, the surveys show the incumbent senators leading their Republican challengers by seven points. However, with margins of error for likely voters in Pennsylvania at ±3.1 points and ±3.3 points in Wisconsin, there is still room for movement and shifts in voter preferences as the election cycle progresses.
Kabir Khanna, Deputy Director of Elections & Data Analytics at CBS News, conducts surveys, develops statistical models, and projects races at the network Decision Desk. His expertise in political behavior and methodology informs his analysis of the Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With a PhD in political science from Princeton University, Khanna provides valuable insights into the factors influencing the reelection campaigns of Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin in these battleground states.
