California’s Senate race has been thrown into uncertainty due to the possibility of a record-low voter turnout, which could potentially benefit Republican candidate Steve Garvey, a former baseball star. The slow return of mail-in ballots in the state has mainly come from older, white, conservative-leaning homeowners, a demographic that traditionally favors Republicans. This trend is causing concern for Democratic incumbents Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. Barbara Lee, and Rep. Katie Porter, who are all vying for a spot in the general election in November. Despite having fundraising and polling advantages, the slow voter turnout is complicating their paths to victory.
The top two finishers in the March 5 contest will advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. Schiff, known for his role in the impeachments of former President Donald Trump, has been a frontrunner in the race. Lee, a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, and Porter, known for her sharp questioning of tech CEOs, are also well-known candidates in the Democratic field. After the passing of Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, all three candidates entered the race, with Porter leaving her swing district in Southern California to run for Senate in an effort to help Democrats regain control of the House.
The slow voter turnout in California is unusual for a presidential election year, with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump likely to face off again. This low-interest election cycle has created an electorate that is older, more conservative, and whiter, potentially benefiting Garvey as Democratic candidates splinter votes on the left. The lack of Democratic enthusiasm is raising concerns for the incumbents, who are facing a challenging path to victory in the primary.
Schiff, Porter, and Lee were initially expected to be the main contenders in the Senate race, as they share similar policy positions but bring different backgrounds and styles to the contest. Garvey entered the race in October, providing Republicans with a recognizable name on the ballot. Despite the fact that a Republican hasn’t won a Senate race in California since 1988, the slow voter turnout and Garvey’s presence on the ballot are causing some Democrats to worry about the potential outcome of the primary.
The race has seen a significant amount of advertising spending, with Schiff having a significant advantage over his rivals in terms of fundraising and ad buys. Porter has accused Schiff of running ads that highlight Garvey in an effort to boost the former baseball star’s profile with Republicans, potentially making him an easier opponent for Schiff in the general election. Lee, a progressive standard-bearer, has struggled to raise money, which has impacted her polling numbers. Despite the talent and impressive credentials of all three Democratic candidates, the dynamics of the race and the low voter turnout could ultimately determine the outcome of the primary.
