President Biden’s campaign has come to the conclusion that Vice President Kamala Harris is the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election, according to a memo obtained by CBS News. This decision comes after concerns were raised about Mr. Biden’s fitness to run for office following a poor debate performance.
The campaign has conducted polling that puts Harris at the top of the ticket, despite public polling suggesting that she would fare slightly better than Mr. Biden. The memo also acknowledges that Mr. Biden has slipped in polls against Trump but believes that winning the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is the clearest pathway to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
CBS News’ battleground state polling data shows that Mr. Biden is currently tied with Trump in Michigan and Nevada at 50%, while trailing by 2 points in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona. These numbers are all within the margin of error, indicating a close race in these key states.
In comparison, CBS News polling in late July 2020 found Mr. Biden leading Trump by 6 points in Michigan, and also leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 6 points in early August. These numbers suggest that the race has tightened significantly since then, with Mr. Biden facing a tougher challenge in the battleground states.
There are seven battleground states in play at this point in the campaign, giving Mr. Biden multiple routes to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Winning six of these states in 2020 helped him secure 306 electoral votes and clinch the presidency.
However, each potential route to victory in 2024 comes with its own set of challenges. If Mr. Biden were to win every state he carried in 2020 and take 3 of Maine’s 4 electoral votes, but lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, he would need to secure Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to reach 270 electoral votes. This scenario would leave him just one vote short of a second term.
To reach the necessary 270 votes in this situation, Mr. Biden would have to win a congressional district in Nebraska that includes the city of Omaha. Nebraska awards some of its electoral votes by congressional district, and winning the Omaha-based district that he captured in 2020 would give him the additional vote needed for reelection.
In response to concerns about Mr. Biden’s performance and the upcoming election, campaign aides have urged Democrats to focus on defeating Trump and avoid public infighting. They emphasized the importance of the Republican National Convention as a key moment in the campaign and stressed the need to address the MAGA extremism that will be on display.
While acknowledging that the debate was a setback for the campaign, the memo reassured supporters that Mr. Biden and his team have overcome setbacks before and are prepared to face the challenges ahead.
Overall, the campaign’s assessment highlights the critical nature of the upcoming election and the need for a unified effort to secure victory in November. With the race tightening in key battleground states, every vote and every decision will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.
