President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are currently leading in the race for their parties’ nominations for a second term. While they have won every contest by large margins and are considered the overwhelming favorites, they are not yet considered the “presumptive nominees” by The Associated Press. This designation is only used once a candidate has secured the number of delegates needed to win a majority vote at the national party conventions, which will not happen until after more states have voted. The earliest Trump could clinch the nomination is March 12, while for Biden, it’s March 19.
In the past, presidential candidates did not officially become the Republican or Democratic nominee until winning the vote on the convention floor. However, with the shift in the role of primaries and caucuses, the conventions have become largely ornamental, and it is the votes cast in these contests that determine the nominees. This change has resulted in nominees being known before the conventions for the last half-century, sometimes long before they have officially reached the required number of delegates.
Despite the shift in the nomination process, the AP still adheres to the rule of not calling a candidate the “presumptive nominee” until they have reached the magic number of delegates needed for a majority at the convention. This rule applies even if a candidate is the only major competitor left in the race. For Republicans, the magic number is 1,215 delegates, while for Democrats, it is a moving target currently standing at 1,968 delegates.
President Trump recently won his fourth straight early contest, defeating former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina. He had previously won in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. On the other hand, President Biden secured commanding victories in South Carolina and Nevada, with a write-in win in New Hampshire after choosing not to campaign or appear on the ballot.
As the primary season progresses, the focus will be on the upcoming contests that will determine whether President Biden and former President Trump can secure enough delegates to officially clinch their parties’ nominations. Until then, they remain strong frontrunners, but not yet the “presumptive nominees” according to The Associated Press.
