In mid-March, House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed optimism that the series of resignations by GOP lawmakers had come to an end after a number of lawmakers had already left. However, a week later, Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin announced his early departure as well. With Gallagher’s exit on April 19, House Republicans will control 217 seats compared to Democrats’ 213, leaving them with a slim majority that could be at risk if more members resign before their terms are up.
The possibility of Democrats gaining control of the House mid-Congress is slim but not impossible, according to experts. While it has happened once in the Senate, control of the House has never flipped in the middle of a congressional term. The GOP currently holds a tiny majority, and any further departures could jeopardize their ability to maintain control. However, experts believe that it is more likely that Republicans will maintain their majority with little legislative action taking place.
Mid-session departures are seen as more consequential due to the GOP’s narrow majority. While some lawmakers may be frustrated with serving in Congress, particularly within the Republican conference, they are unlikely to jeopardize the party’s majority. Special elections are required to fill House vacancies, and even strategically timed retirements are not expected to threaten the GOP’s majority. The upcoming special elections are not expected to impact the GOP majority, with Democrats and Republicans each retaining seats in various states.
The number of retirements among House Republicans is not unusual, but the timing of these resignations in the middle of a Congress is uncommon. Experts suggest that the high number of retirements reflects the dissatisfaction among House Republicans with their current roles. After Easter, the House is expected to face more dysfunction due to Republican infighting, which could lead to further early departures. Speaker Johnson will have to navigate these challenges to ensure the party’s majority is maintained.
House GOP leadership is in close communication with members, both retiring and not, to emphasize the importance of protecting and defending the Republican majority. Despite the challenges facing the GOP in maintaining their majority, experts believe that Democrats flipping control of the House mid-Congress is unlikely. However, the potential for more departures and further dysfunction within the party could pose a threat to the GOP’s control of the lower chamber.
